Over the last month, I have focused my writing on substack to an analysis of:
Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation’s manifesto and playbook for the permanent take-over of the executive branch, 1
the fracturing of the FRP (Former Republican Party) into three factions:, the chaos caucus, the grievance caucus, and the remnants (RINOs and those inclined to bipartisanship), which exist in an unstable coalition that led to the Speakership paralysis2
the elevation of Mike Johnson to the Speakership. 3
Today, I’m going to start discussing how these three threads are woven together and how I think the Heritage Foundation hopes to see things play out.
I am a scientist by training, not a conspiracy theorist. I believe in careful, repeatable observations and facts. In politics, facts and observations are speeches, documents, comments in interviews, and voting records. Once facts are assembled, scientists draw conclusions based on logic to form theories. In science, theories are revised as more observations become available, as their predictions are tested, and as the assumptions and logic behind the theories are continuously reviewed. Theories evolve in science as new information becomes available; they represent the most comprehensive distillation of current understanding in an area and the implications and predictions based on that understanding. Once a prediction is proved wrong by new information, the theory has to be revised, if possible, or discarded.
I intend to apply that process to the current political landscape. I believe, as Joe Biden does, that we are at a time in our history where the the great American experiment in democratic government is being tested. What I will do is lay out the evidence to the best of my ability and discuss my theory of what I think it means, what I see as the logic linking the facts and observations, and what the implications are. When I am wrong, I will tell you and I will also tell you how I got off the path. I hope you will add to the discussion with your comments. I believe ordinary people, working together on important issues, can do extraordinary things.
I was provoked to go into full-on scientific method mode by listening to the 10/28/23 Robert Reich Coffe Klatch. Here is a portion of the transcript.4
RR: Well, that's I wish I could be delighted with the new Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson.
You know, the only reason that he got in, there are two reasons.
Number one, nobody had ever heard of him outside very narrow confines of the Republican House.
And also, he is a Trumper.
I mean, Donald Trump supported him.
You know, this is the, I think this is the final straw in terms of the Republican Party becoming a Trump party.
And Mike Johnson, he was one of the engineers of the ... drive of January 6 2021 not to certify... he is an election denier, a MAGA, kind of a supreme MAGA -
He also was against the continuing resolution to keep the government open.
I respect Reich, his government service, and his passion. But I was brought up short by how fully Reich has bought into two premises that are getting wide coverage in the media: 1) that Trump anointed Mike Johnson, and that is why he was unanimously elected by the Republicans in the House; 2) that he was a barely known figure in the House, a back-bencher. My hypothesis is that these premises are both deeply incorrect. I am going to go into the second point in this post.
How aligned is Mike Johnson with the Heritage Foundation? Here is the glowing statement issued by Heritage President Dr. Kevin Roberts,
As I have said repeatedly, the speakership is not about any one person, but about who will fight for the everyday American and their interests over the power of the Washington Swamp. I congratulate my good friend Speaker-designate Mike Johnson. As a former Republican Study Committee chairman and current vice chair of the House Republican Conference, Johnson has both a tremendous conservative track record and a willingness to listen to his colleagues and put the will of the conference and the American people first.
“This kind of conservative servant leadership ought to unite House Republicans. All of us at Heritage look forward to working with Speaker Johnson to secure the border, rein in spending, conduct serious oversight of the Biden administration, and provide real leadership on the world stage. It’s time to get to work.” (Emphasis is mine.)
The Republican Study Committee is the largest Republican caucus in the House and comprises the bulk of what I call the “grievance caucus.” The chair of the House Republican Conference is responsible for messaging on Republican priorities and talking points. Johnson has arguably been the 5th most influential member in the House over the last 6 years, after McCarthy, Scalise, Emmer, and Stefanick.
Note what is not in Robert’s statement. There is no mention of Johnson, a constitutional lawyer, as the author of the amicus brief to SCOTUS that got more than 100 Republican members of Congress to sign supporting Ken Paxton’s challenge of the vote in swing states. He also was one of Trump’s handpicked defense team in his 2020 impeachment trial in the Senate.
In his letter to Republican colleagues in his quest to be named Speaker Designee, Johnson laid out seven priorities: restoring trust by ensuring transparency; advancing a policy agenda supported by the consensus of House Republicans; promoting individual members by emphasizing each one’s strengths; engaging members in working groups to formulate policy solutions; working to inform the Republican base and American people of the conference’s policy agenda; building coalitions with conservative think tanks and policy groups; and working to expand the Republican base.5(Emphasis is mine).
In case you have any doubts about how well-aligned Mike Johnson is with the Heritage Foundation, the birthplace of Project 2025, you need to listen to this October 8, 2023, repeat podcast where Johnson interviews Dr. Lee Edwards, the 90-year-old former Distinguished Fellow in Conservative Thought at The Heritage Foundation.
Check the date. McCarthy was ousted from the Speakership on October 3, 2023. The podcast is titled, Who We Are and How We Should Lead (in Washington and Around the World) . The podcast blurb states,
As chaos ensues on Capitol Hill and in foreign affairs, and a war begins in Israel, Mike is working around the clock in Congress to help resolve the unprecedented crises that will quite literally determine the future of our nation—and the survival of freedom around the globe.
At the center of it all is an open debate about who we are as conservatives and how we should lead. It made us think of a very important and timely conversation that Mike had last summer with one of the living legends of the movement, and we decided to share it again this week.
Edwards begins by extolling Joe McCarthy, yes, THAT McCarthy from 1950’s, and says he was badly treated. Johnson would love to have a “new Ronald Reagan,” but he thinks that “might not work” because the current generation is not educated about the founding documents and the Federalist papers. Edwards bemoans the fact that 70% of millennials would vote for a “socialist”.
How aligned is Johnson’s voting record with the Heritage Foundation agenda? Here is the data from his 4 terms in the House, along with that of the average House Republican, taken from the Heritage Action for America website.6 Note that the 118th Congress is still in session; the scores are works in progress. Trifecta notes when the majority both houses of Congress and the presidency are of the same party.
The lower score this year is because Johnson voted to suspend the debt ceiling. Johnson said the following, "I voted in favor of the Fiscal Responsibility Act this evening to prevent the first-ever default on our country’s debt. We are in a dangerous time, we were presented with only one bill, and we simply had no choice." 7
.Except for this year’s incomplete data, Johnson's record showed he moved ever closer to Heritage Foundation priorities and was consistently more in alignment with them than the average Republican in the House.
Johnson is also well aligned with Heritage on the culture wars issues. According to reporting from The Hill, Roger Severino, vice president of domestic policy at the Heritage Foundation, said,8
“Conservatives should be breathing a sigh of relief that we have somebody who has been so strong and courageous now with a position of authority, and can do something about actually enacting broadly popular policies that will push back on the Biden administration’s radical abortion and gender ideologies.”
Republicans in the 118th Congress have made little progress legislatively but have focused on investigations of Biden and the “weaponization” of government agencies. Jonathan Blitzer of the New Yorker had this to say in an NPR segment:
“And so, you know, you'll see in the committee room, where Jordan is much more vocal and dramatic, Johnson tends to be more lawyerly and subdued. And he tries to couch his arguments more in legal terms. I've watched him in the committee rooms essentially citing Heritage Foundation reports and other, you know, extremely conservative documents to talk about everything from, you know, bias at the Justice Department to rampant crime in American cities. ”
As Johnson moves to staff his office as Speaker, Punchbowl News reports that he is interviewing from McCarthy’s staff but that his big connection to K-Street lobbyists is with Heritage.9
Punch Bowl also discusses Johnson’s anemic fundraising record, as does the New York Times.10 However, it’s also worth noting that he was unopposed for his House seat in 2022, which likely explains why he does not appear to be a big fundraiser on his own behalf. Louisiana elections use an open primary. All candidates compete in the same primary, and a candidate can win the election outright by receiving more than 50 percent of the vote. If no candidate does, the top two vote recipients from the primary advance to the general election, regardless of their partisan affiliation. He won the open primary for his seat outright in 2020 by garnering 60% of the vote. The runner-up, a Democrat, had 25% of the vote. 11
The Heritage Foundation, as of December 31, 2022, had more than 500,000 members, had net assets of $387,665,165, and spent $75,949,621 on policy, media government relations, outreach educational programs and communications. It bills itself as the most broadly supported public policy research institute in the nation. 12 It is hard to imagine that Heritage will not use its enormous resources to bolster positions held by House candidates who support Johnson and the Heritage worldview. Heritage also has enormous influence in conservative circles and can advise donors on how best to see their money put to use on their issues of concern. Heritage is a 501(C) (3) organization that does not have to disclose its donors, and donations are tax-deductible.
The evidence is clear that the Heritage Foundation is behind Mike Johnson and that Johnson is strongly aligned with the Heritage Foundation's agenda. Johnson has had a very high profile within the Republican Party and arch-conservative circles. Heritage is responsible for the development of the Project 2025 playbook to gut the executive government on Day One of a Republican administration.
In my next post, I will discuss the evidence that Trump is becoming expendable.
https://www.project2025.org/
https://robertreich.substack.com/p/help-how-do-we-deal-with-all-this#transcription
https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2023/10/25/who-is-mike-johnson--house-republicans--latest-nominee-for-speaker-
https://heritageaction.com/scorecard/members/J000299/118
https://www.shreveporttimes.com/story/news/politics/2023/05/31/local-response-to-the-nations-debt-ceiling-deal/70275673007/
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4280223-social-conservatives-trans-abortion-speaker-johnson/
https://punchbowl.news/article/how-speaker-mike-johnson-will-build-team/
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/28/us/politics/johnson-speaker-fundraising-mccarthy.html
https://ballotpedia.org/Mike_Johnson_(Louisiana)
https://www.heritage.org/financial
How on earth can “Heritage is a 501(C) (3) organization”? Political activism and policy engagement in legislative lobbying and political advocacy to a much greater extent. I’m curious what qualifies as their charitable programs? If it walks, looks, and quacks like a 501(c)4, it’s a 501(c)4. Even the NRA was forced to become a 501(c)4.
Writing about the record-setting Instant-Hurricane Otis, which devastated Acapulco, Elizabeth Kolbert points out that: 'In 2019, when (Mike) Johnson chaired the Republican Study Committee, the group made fun of the proposed Green New Deal, calling it “a Greedy New Steal.” The Hill has characterized Johnson as “a longtime ally of the oil industry” who will be “perhaps the most vocal skeptic of the scientific consensus on climate change ever to hold the speakership.” ’
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/hurricane-otis-and-the-world-we-live-in-now