On September 30, Joe Biden signed H.R. 5680, now Public Law 118-15, the initial continuing resolution that, with just hours to spare, extended government funding at FY2023 levels for 48 days. None of the 12 appropriations bills for FY 2024, which, over the past 10 years, account for about 1/3 of government spending, 1 had been enacted.
Shepherded through by Speaker Kevin McCarthy on a suspension of the rules vote, the House approved the measure by a vote of 335 (209 D-126 R) to 91 (1D-90R), with 7 not voting. More Democrats than Republicans supported the measure than Republicans. The lone Democrat who voted against the bill did so because it did not include funding for Ukraine.
Yesterday, shepherded through by Speaker Mike Johnson on a suspension of the rules vote, the House passed a continuing resolution that extended government funding at FY2023 levels until January 19, 2024 (63 days further extension) for agencies covered by the Agriculture, Energy-Water, Military Construction-VA, and Transportation-HUD bills and to February 2, 2024 (77 days further extension) for all other departments and agencies. None of the 12 appropriations bills have been enacted.
The vote was 336 (D-209, R-127) to 95 (D-2, R-93), with 3 members not voting. More Democrats than Republicans supported the measure than Republicans, with essentially the entire Democratic caucus again voting to continue funding the government. The two Democrats who voted against the bill did so because the bill did not include funding for Ukraine.2
What has not changed in the interim?
The motion to vacate rule has not been changed.
The Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 3 (Public Law 118-5, originally H.R. 3746, sponsored by Patrick T. McHenry (R-NC-10)) is still in play. This was the bill that, in part, suspended the debt ceiling until January 1, 2025. It says (emphasis is mine):
(Sec. 102) This section requires the discretionary spending limits to be revised if a continuing resolution (CR) is in effect at the beginning of the calendar year.
Specifically, if a CR for FY2024 or FY2025 is in effect on or after January 1 of 2024 or 2025 for any discretionary budget account, the discretionary spending limits for that fiscal year must be revised to specified levels. CBO has estimated4 that the revised limits will be lower for defense spending and higher for nondefense spending compared to the original limits.
If all of the regular appropriations bills for the fiscal year are enacted before April 30, the revised limits revert to the original limits. If a CR is in effect on April 30 of 2024 or 2025, a final sequestration order must be issued based on the revised limits.
What has changed in the interim?
Speaker McCarthy, the mega fund-raiser for the House, was deposed for the crime of working across the aisle with Democrats to keep the government running.
The legislative branch was paralyzed for 23 days, unable to consider any legislation.
Mike Johnson was elected Speaker with 100% support from the Republican caucus after Scalise, Jordan, and Emmer were rejected. Johnson is a man of extreme right-wing political views, a major election denier, and with a long record of deep-seated anti-gay, anti-trans, anti-abortion rhetoric and actions.
Trump supported Johnson’s bid for Speaker against Tom Emmer, labeling Emmer a “Globalist RINO” and saying that voting for him “would be a tragic mistake.”In a press conference before the passage of the continuing resolution by the House, Mike Johnson, two heartbeats from the presidency, endorsed Donald Trump for President AFTER Trump’s Nazi-echoing screed. According to CNN:5
“I’m all in for President Trump, I expect he’ll be our nominee, and he’s going to win it, and we have to make [Joe Biden] a one-term president. We have to do that,” Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, told CNBC.
While the newly minted speaker, like his ousted predecessor, is a longtime Trump ally, Johnson’s endorsement marks a notable departure from Kevin McCarthy, who stopped short of formally backing Trump’s third run for the White House. On Tuesday, Johnson – who said he has endorsed Trump “wholeheartedly” – dubbed himself “one of the closest allies that President Trump had in Congress” and said Trump had “a phenomenal first term.”
Johnson’s statement goes far beyond McCarthy’s hedging on Trump, at one point claiming he might not be the “best” candidate.
Johnson further went on to justify his support of Trump by re-emphasizing the talking point that Trump really, truly believed the election was stolen from him. In response to a question about Trump’s indictments, CNN quoted Johnson as saying:
“I think this is motivated by political prosecutions, we call it ‘lawfare,’ and that’s what it is. It’s just another way to go after a candidate.”
Physical altercations are breaking out in Congress. GOP Sen. Markwayne Mullin challenged Teamsters president Sean O’Brien to a fight in a Senate hearing and had to be admonished by Bernie Sanders.6 GOP Rep. Tim Burchett accused former Speaker Kevin McCarthy of elbowing him in the back. Burchett was one of those who ousted McCarthy.7
What’s possible in the near term?
The biggest question I see is, will there be a successful motion to vacate on Johnson? It will be telling. Ditching McCarthy, given his fund-raising prowess, for Johnson, resulted in a smarter, far more doctrinairely conservative Speaker, one tightly aligned with both Koch and Heritage billionaire conservative factions. The 100% vote for Johnson seemed out of character for the caucus, given the fractious infighting during prior votes. I have taken that to mean that word from above, with substantial clout, must have had a hand in forming that consensus. While Trump gave his imprimatur to Johnson, that alone would not have been enough to swing the remnants and those in vulnerable seats. The only real motivator is control of the dark money spigot, and that is in the oligarchs’ hands. Trump doesn’t have control of sufficient money to fund Congressional campaigns. Besides, he has been notoriously stingy. He is burning through cash on his multiple legal defenses, on the financial issues at Truth Social, and faces huge fines and loss of his business license in NY.
Johnson, as Speaker, is perfectly placed to execute a far-right conservative legislative agenda. If he is not deposed by a motion to vacate, that is definitely in the interests of the dark money oligarchs.
If Johnson is deposed, the government shuts down, legislation action stops again, there is no aid to either Israel or Ukraine for an even longer foreseeable future, and our democratic institutions are further weakened.
Tensions are continuing to escalate within the Republican caucus. I have been contending that it is an unstable coalition of three main factions: the chaos caucus, the largest grievance caucus (hate the out-of-control national debt, and the social safety net for the undeserving poor, otherwise known as the limited government types), and the remnants, the few remaining old-style Republicans with some centrist and non-isolationist chops. We are already seeing remnants like Ken Buck and Mitt Romney announce retirement plans. It will be interesting to see if the chaos caucus breaks off in a tantrum or if they are maintained in line until after the 2024 election. At this point, I think the oligarchs will continue to fund them because there has been no viable alternative to Trump so far among his challengers. As long as they have that fiscal leash, they can maintain some degree of control. Charles Koch, who hates Trump, is in a quandary, and will likely continue to fund down-ballot races. It is important to remember that the people best able to weather insurrection are the wealthiest, even though it would be bad for most businesses.
There may be some government funding surprises, given the date-specific provisions of the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 and the new “laddered” continuing resolution that extends beyond key dates. I will be looking further into the implications of this—the CR is written with multiple references to prior legislation, so it is, shall we say, less than transparent. If there are any lawyers out there who can help, please chime in in the comments section.
Trump’s defense in the election interference federal and Georgia cases will be that he really, truly believed he had won, and the entire Republican establishment will fall in line. The only question is whether Trump will be able to stick to the script.
We are living through dangerous times. It is essential to grasp the positive news and hold it close, but there are an enormous number of plans that have been set in motion by the far right in this country. This is not the stuff of thrillers and conspiracy theories. It is fact, the plans are accessible online, and it is becoming a call to arms with Trump’s highly public pronouncements about retribution, vermin, and detention camps for illegal immigrants.
Stay informed.
I’ll bet Mike Johnson was elected Speaker with 100% support from the Republican caucus only because any potential “no” vote received a pointed and stern phone call from a higher up for either Trump, The Heritage Foundation, or Koch. Followed by a reminder call if there’s any suspicion of wavering on support for Johnson. Forward progress of the true conservative movement is what matters. Personal bickering, bill riders, talking head media interviews, and the common good of the nation are distractions that need not get in the way.
Speaking of bickering (and playing into the stereotype of certain unions) what on G_D’s Green Earth was Sen. Markwayne Mullin thinking picking a fight with the president of the Teamsters? Gives me an eye rolling chuckle. This from someone that belonged to a union he loved for a short four years and the nephew of a UAW higher up.
Good morning, Georgia. So glad you are on the job collating and disseminating this complex information. I, meanwhile, have been racing through American history with Heather’s fabulous book Democracy Awakening. We have less than a year to re-direct the ship of state. All hands on deck!